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The oil and gas industry in the United States is about to enter a new, dramatic shift in the next 3-5 years. Characterized as the “Big Crew Change,” the workforce resulted in two employee groups, under 40 and over 60-years old. As the older group enters retirement age, arguably, the industry's attention and actions are muted.
The aging workforce
Schramm, Jen and Karen Wessels. “Preparing for an Aging Workforce: Oil, Gas, and Mining Industry Report.” The Society of Human Resource Management. December 2015.
We cannot help but generalize events, especially from unpredictable occurrences -- like equipment break down. However, research shows that human intuition is consistently fooled. The unfortunate consequences are avoidable with an understanding of the law of small numbers.
Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman. "Belief in the Law of Small Numbers." Psycologial Bulletin. 1971.
The Black Swan is a highly unexpected event that carries large consequences and is subjected to ex-post rationalization - like a plant shutdown. After such an event, the tendency is to weave narratives to assess the unpredictability in the environment but owing to a collection of mental biases.
Fooled by randomness
Nassim Taleb. "Silent Risk, Lectures on Probability, Vol. 1." 2015.
Over the past decade, green infrastructure has emerged as a topic of significant interest in urban and regional planning. They serve as an organizing framework for form and growth through ecosystem services and human well-being, environmental restoration, and comprehensive planning.
The Evolving City
Theodore Eisenman. "Frederick Law Omsted, Green Infrastructure, and the Evolving City." 2013.
The technology lift in communication, commerce, and media is converging onto manufacturing. Industry 4.0 or specifically, intelligent manufacturing, IoT-enabled manufacturing, and cloud manufacturing, promises flexibility for mass customization, better quality, and productivity improvements. But there are presents current and future challenges to the much-anticipated Fourth Industrial Revolution.
RY Zhong et al. "Intelligent Manufacturing in the Context of Industry 4.0: A Review." Engineering Journal. 2017, Vol. 3, Issue 5.
Automation is changing the nature of work and automation will accelerate shift the required workforce skills. Research reveals technological skills will rise by 55% and by the next decade equate to 17% of hours worked. Companies must work to manage large-scale retaining to stay competitive.
Skill shift: Automation & the future workforce
McKinsey Global Institute. "Skill Shift. Automation and the future of the workforce." May 2018.
Without a new strategy, manufacturing in the US will not have enough skilled resources. Over the next decade, an estimated 4.6 million new manufacturing jobs will be created but about half will be filled. Significant contributors include automation, baby boomer retirements, and negative perception of the industry by students.
The skill gap
Deloitte & The Manufacturing Institute. "The Skills Gap and Future Work in Manufacturing." Manufacturing Institute. 2018.
Preventive Maintenance (PM) has a role in the industry, but it should not be the dominant strategy. The focus should be on improving the reliability of equipment at every stage of its life. In this analysis, various maintenance strategies, such as condition-, failure-, and interval-based maintenance are examined for appropriateness.
PM and reliability
Jason Tranter, CMRP, CRL. "Preventative Maintenance will not Single-handedly Solve Reliability Problems." 2016.
A world of fast-changing conditions and heightened uncertainty demands defense agencies act with speed and flexibility. They can do so by taking an iterative, dynamic approach to strategic management.
A dynamic strategy for uncertain times
Lowell Bryan et al. "A Dynamic Strategy for Uncertain Times." McKinsey on Government. 2010.
Most industries go through a "shakeout" phase during which the number of producers in the industry declines. Industry output generally continues, however, which implies a shift to incumbents and new entrants. The shakeout is classical creative destruction and the next creative-destruction episode is Industry 4.0.
Boyan Jovanovic and Chung-Yi Tse. "Creative Destruction in Industries." 2007.